As emerging market nations have seen their economies explode over the last few decades, the idea of a commodity super cycle was born. The basic premise was that as these nations grew the need to fuel that growth with all mater of natural resources would spur higher and higher long term prices for such raw materials. Investors dove headfirst into steel, oil and other commodities in order to take advantage of the trend.
Yet, recent slowing growth in the emerging world has caused some analysts to question whether or not the super-cycle was in fact, dead.
However, despite the recent slowing, the trend of higher natural resource demand- along with higher prices- could still be at hand. For investors, the super cycle may still be the key for future portfolio gains. According to consultants McKinsey & Co, the commodities super cycle may only be in its seventh inning
Slowing Down, But Growth Still There
The consultant predicts that prices for commodities will continue to rise in the next few years due to various cost floors. McKinsey cites that many resources have unavoidable costs that are now in place. For example, while tapping shale via fracking has unearthed abundant supplies, using that technology is incredibly expensive. The inflation-adjusted average cost of starting a new oil well has more than doubled over the past decade. Likewise, arable land in China and Brazil is disappearing as the two nations urbanize, while the time it takes to launch a new mine is now hitting 20 years to develop. That�� up from just six in the 1980s and ten years in the 1990s. All in all, these factors will help push up prices of the commodities produced.
Callon Petroleum Company (Callon), incorporated on March 29, 1994, is an independent oil and natural gas company. It is focused on growing production and reserves from its oil-weighted multi-play assets in the Permian Basin. In 2013, the Company shifted its operations from the offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico to the onshore, Permian Basin region in Texas.
The Company operates 100% of its Permian acreage. As of December 31, 2013, the Company�� proved reserves were 14.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (80% oil and 50% proved developed).
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Garrett Cook]
In trading on Friday, energy shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 0.40 percent. Top losers in the sector included Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE), down 5.67 percent, and Tesco (NASDAQ: TESO), off 3.99 percent.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.00 per share on revenue of $26.83 million.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SUPN) is expected to post a Q4 loss at $0.55 per share on revenue of $7.78 million.
Hot Oil Companies For 2015: FMC Technologies Inc. (FTI)
FMC Technologies, Inc. provides technology solutions for the energy industry worldwide. Its Subsea Technologies segment designs and manufactures subsea systems used in the offshore production of crude oil and natural gas; and multiphase meters used in production and surface well testing, reservoir monitoring, remote operation, fiscal allocation, process monitoring and control, and artificial lift optimization, as well as provides installation and workover tools, installation assistance, and field support for commissioning, intervention, and maintenance of subsea systems. This segment also provides remotely operated vehicle systems and remote manipulator systems, as well as offers support services for subsea control systems and other high-technology equipment for subsea exploration and production. This segment markets its products primarily through its own technical sales organization. The company�s Surface Technologies segment offers surface wellheads for standard and cri tical service applications; fluid control products for use in well completion and stimulation activities; and fracturing flowback and wireline services for exploration companies in the oil and gas industry. Its Energy Infrastructure segment offers measurement systems for the custody transfer of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products; fluid loading and transfer systems to the oil and gas, petrochemical, and chemical industries; material handling solutions, such as bulk conveying systems to the power generation and mining industries; systems that separate production flows from wells into oil, gas, sand, and water; and direct drive systems for various energy-related applications. This segment also offers design, engineering, project management, maintenance, and aftermarket services for blending and transfer systems; and automation, control, and information technology for the oil and gas, and other industries. FMC Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Rich Smith]
Following up on its March order with Cameron International�for $600 million worth of subsea "trees" -- equipment affixed to an oil wellhead to regulate the flow of gas and fluids injected into a well to help force oil out -- Brazilian oil major Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR ) (NYSE: PBR-A ) announced Wednesday that it is ordering another 49 subsea trees, tooling, and associated subsea controls from FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI ) in a contract worth $500 million.
Hot Oil Companies For 2015: Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)
Northern Tier Energy LP, formerly Northern Tier Energy, Inc., incorporated in October 21, 2011, is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail, and pipeline operations that serves the PADD II region of the United States. The Company operates its assets in two business segments: the refining business and the retail business. The Company owns three pipelines. The Company's operations will be conducted through, and its operating assets will be owned by, its wholly owned subsidiary, Northern Tier Energy LLC, and its subsidiaries. Effective November 12, 2013, Western Refining Inc acquired a 38.681% interest in Northern Tier Energy LP.
Refining Business
The Company�� refining business primarily consists of a 74,000 barrels per calendar day (84,500 barrels per stream day) refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota. Its location allows it to distribute its refined products throughout the midwestern United States. The Company�� refinery produces a slate of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt, which are then marketed to resellers and consumers primarily in the PADD II region. It also owns various storage and transportation assets, including a light products terminal, a heavy products terminal, storage tanks, rail loading/unloading facilities and a Mississippi river dock. The Company�� refining business also includes its 17% interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company, which owns and operates the Minnesota Pipeline, a 455,000 barrels per calendar day crude oil pipeline system that transports crude oil (primarily from Western Canada and North Dakota) for approximately 300 miles from the Enbridge pipeline hub at Clearbrook, Minnesota to its refinery.
As of March 31, 2012, the Company's storage assets included 84 hydrocarbon storage tanks with a total capacity of 3.7 million barrels (156 million gallons), 0.8 million barrels of crude oil storage and 2.9 million barrels of feedstock and product storage. The Company�� r! efinery supplies all of the gasoline and diesel sold in its company-operated and franchised convenience stores, as well as all of the gasoline and diesel sold in 90 independently owned and operated Marathon branded stores in its marketing area. The Minnesota Pipe Line Company owns the Minnesota Pipeline, a crude oil pipeline system in Minnesota that transports crude oil to the St. Paul area. The Minnesota Pipeline system has multiple lines that run approximately 300 miles from Clearbrook in Clearwater County, Minnesota to Dakota County, Minnesota, transporting crude oil received through the Enbridge pipeline connections at Clearbrook from Western Canada and North Dakota to our refinery and Koch Industries�� Flint Hills Resources refinery in Minnesota.
Retail Business
As of March 31, 2012, the Company�� retail business operated 166 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 67 franchised convenience stores, which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand. These convenience stores are located primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin and sell various grades of gasoline and diesel, tobacco products and immediately consumable items, such as non-alcoholic beverages, beer, prepared food and a range of snacks and prepackaged items. It also owns and operates SuperMom�� Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared food items for sale in its company-operated and franchised convenience stores and other third party locations.
The Company has a retail-marketing network of 233 convenience stores, as of March 31, 2012, located throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Dakota, of which it operates 166 stores and support 67 franchised stores. All of its company-operated and franchised convenience stores are operated under the SuperAmerica brand. It also owns and operates SuperMom�� Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared items for sale in its retail outlets and for other third parties. Its refine! ry suppli! es all of the gasoline and diesel sold in its company-operated and franchised convenience stores. The Company has retail customers, which primarily include retail end-users, motorists and commercial drivers. It had a retail-marketing network of 233 convenience stores, as of March 31, 2012, located throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Dakota, of which it operated 166 stores and support 67 franchised stores.
The Company competes with Koch Industries��Flint Hills Resources Refinery, Holiday, Kwik Trip and Wal-Mart.
Advisors' Opinion: Hot Oil Companies For 2015: VAALCO Energy Inc (EGY)
VAALCO Energy, Inc. (VAALCO), incorporated in 1985, is an independent energy company principally engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. VAALCO owns producing properties and conducts exploration activities as operator in Gabon, West Africa, conducts exploration activities as an operator in Angola, West Africa, and has conducted exploration activities as a non-operator in the British North Sea. The Company owns minor interests in production activities as a non-operator in the United States. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Etame, Avouma, South Tchibala and Ebouri fields produced approximately 8.1 million barrels of oil (2.3 million barrels of oil net to the Company).
Offshore Gabon
The Company�� primary source of revenue is from the Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon. VAALCO operates the Etame Marin block on behalf of a consortium of companies. As of December 31, 2010, VAALCO owned a 30.35% interest in the exploration acreage within the Etame Marin block. The Company owns a 28.1% interest in the development areas surrounding the Etame, Avouma, South Tchibala and Ebouri fields, each of which is located on the Etame Marin block. The Company produces from the Etame, Avouma, South Tchibala and Ebouri fields on the block.
Onshore Gabon
The Mutamba Iroru block is ocated onshore near the coast in central Gabon. The Mutamba Iroru block contains an exploration area of approximately 270,000 acres.
Offshore Angola
The Company has 40% working interest in Offshore Angola. The four year primary term with an optional three year extension awards the Company exploration rights to 1.4 million acres offshore central Angola.
Onshore Domestic-Texas
In July 2011, the Company acquired a 480 acre lease in the Granite Wash formation in North Texas. In November 2011, the Company commen! ced drilling a second well on the initial Granite Wash formation lease.
Onshore DomesticMontana
In May 2011, the Company acquired a 70% working interest in approximately 5,200 acres (3,640 net acres) in Sheridan County, Montana in the Middle Bakken formation. In September 2011, it acquired a 65% working interest in approximately 22,000 gross acres covering the Middle Bakken and deeper formations in the East Poplar unit and the Northwest Poplar field in Roosevelt County, Montana.
DomesticOutside Operated
The Company has minor interests in Brazos County, Texas producing from the Buda/Georgetown formations. The Company also owns certain minor non-operated interests in the Ship Shoal area of the Gulf of Mexico and in Pickens County, Alabama.
Advisors' Opinion: Hot Oil Companies For 2015: Alon USA Partners LP (ALDW)
Alon USA Partners, LP (Alon USA), incorporated on August 17, 2012, owns and operates refining and petroleum products marketing business. Its integrated downstream business operates primarily in the South Central and Southwestern regions of the United States. It owns and operates a crude oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas with total throughput capacity of approximately 70,000 barrels per day (bpd). The crude oil pipelines the Company utilizes consist of the Amdel, White Oil, Mesa Interconnect, Centurion and Centurion Interconnect. Its Big Spring refinery produces ultra-low sulfur gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, petrochemical feedstocks, asphalt and other petroleum products.
During the year ended December 31, 2011 and the six months ended June 30, 2012, sour crude, such as West Texas Sour (WTS), represented approximately 80.4% and 80.4% of its throughput, respectively, and sweet crude, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), represented approximately 15.8% and 17.1% of its throughput, respectively. For the year ended December 31, 2011 and the six months ended June 30, 2012, the Company produced approximately 49.1% and 49.2% gasoline, 32.3% and 32.5% diesel/jet fuel, 7.1% and 6.4% asphalt, 6.0% and 6.0% petrochemicals and 5.5% and 5.9% other refined products, in each case, respectively. The Company distributes fuel products through a product pipeline and terminal network of seven pipelines totaling approximately 840 miles and six terminals that it owns or access.
The Company competes with Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Robert Rapier]
I warned last week that refiners would report relatively poor earnings for Q3, and refinery MLPs could take a hit, presenting a buying opportunity. On Nov. 6 Alon USA Partners (NYSE: ALDW) reported a loss for the third quarter of $16.1 million, or ($0.26) per unit, compared with net income of $120.4 million for the same period last year. Paul Eisman, CEO and president, cited the deteriorating margins that I discussed in last week’s issue: “Our third quarter results were impacted by a volatile and deteriorating margin environment resulting primarily from decreasing discounts for West Texas crude oil.”
Hot Oil Companies For 2015: Laredo Petroleum Inc (LPI)
Laredo Petroleum, Inc., formerly Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc., incorporated in August 12, 2011, is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and natural gas in the Permian and Mid-Continent regions of the United States. The Company�� activities are primarily focused in the Wolfberry and deeper horizons of the Permian Basin in West Texas and the Anadarko Granite Wash in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma, where it has assembled 134,680 net acres and 37,850 net acres, respectively, as of December 31, 2011.
Permian Basin
The Permian Basin, located in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is an onshore oil and natural gas producing regions in the United States. The Company�� Permian activities are centered on the eastern side of the basin approximately 35 miles east of Midland, Texas in Glasscock, Howard, Reagan and Sterling Counties. As of December 31, 2011, it held 134,680 net acres in over 300 sections with an average working interest of 96% in wells drilled as of that date. The overall Wolfberry interval, the principal focus of its drilling activities, is an oil play that also includes a liquids-rich natural gas component. Its production/exploration fairway extends approximately 20 miles wide and 80 miles long. While exploration and drilling efforts in the southern half of its acreage block has been centered on the shallower portion of the Wolfberry (Spraberry, Dean and Wolfcamp formations) the emphasis in the northern half has been on the deeper intervals, including the Wolfcamp, Cline Shale, Strawn and Atoka formations.
As of December 31, 2011, the Company had drilled and completed approximately 600 gross vertical wells and had defined the productive limits on its acreage throughout the trend. It has expanded its drilling program to include a horizontal component targeting the Cline and Wolfcamp Shales. The Company has drilled four gross horizontal Wolfcamp Shale wells as of December 31, 2011. A! s of December 31, 2011, it had drilled a total of 27 gross horizontal wells in the Wolfcamp and Cline formations, of which 23 are in the Cline Shale and four in the Wolfcamp Shale. It had over 5,600 total gross identified drilling locations (both vertical and horizontal) in the Permian, all of which are within the Wolfberry and Cline Shale interval during the year ended December 31, 2011.
Anadarko Granite Wash
Straddling the Texas/Oklahoma state line, its Granite Wash play extends over a large area in the western part of the Anadarko Basin. As of December 31, 2011, it held 37,850 net acres in Hemphill County, Texas and Roger Mills County, Oklahoma. The Company�� play consists of vertical and horizontal drilling opportunities targeting the liquids-rich Granite Wash formation. As of December 31, 2011, it had drilled and completed over 150 gross vertical wells. During 2011, its horizontal Granite Wash program was in the development phase. As of December 31, 2011, it had approximately 100 gross identified potential drilling locations for the horizontal Granite Wash, which included both its Texas and Oklahoma acreage.
Other areas
The Company, in addition to its Permian Wolfberry and Anadarko Granite Wash plays, evaluated opportunities in three other areas within its core operating regions during 2011. The Dalhart Basin is located on the western side of the Texas Panhandle. As of December 31, 2011, the Company held 83,295 net acres in the Dalhart Basin. As of December 31, 2011, it had drilled two gross vertical wells in the Dalhart Basin. The second area is centrally located in the Central Texas Panhandle, where its operations were conducted through its joint venture with ExxonMobil as of December 31, 2011. As of December 31, 2011, it held 46,915 net acres in the Central Texas Panhandle. The third area is located in the eastern end of the Anadarko Basin, in Caddo County, Oklahoma. As of December 31, 2011, the Company held 33,306 net acres in the Eastern An! adarko.! p> Advisors' Opinion:
- [By Robert Rapier]
Laredo Petroleum (NYSE: LPI) is a smallish (~$4 billion market capitalization) oil and natural gas producer in the booming Permian Basin, where it holds leases on ~144,000 net acres.
- [By Tony Daltorio]
Other companies already drilling in the Cline include Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Gulfport Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: GPOR), and another pioneer in the region, Laredo Petroleum Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LPI).
Hot Oil Companies For 2015: World Point Terminals LP (WPT)
World Point Terminals, LP, incorporated on April 19, 2013, is a fee-based Delaware limited partnership formed to own, operate, develop and acquire terminals and other assets relating to the storage of light refined products, heavy refined products and crude oil. WPT GP, LLC is the general partner of the Company. It operates in a single reportable segment consists primarily of the fee-based storage and terminaling services it performs under contracts with its customers. The Company�� storage terminals are located in the East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States and, as of May 31, 2013, had a combined available storage capacity of 12.4 million barrels. The Company provides terminaling and storage of light refined products, such as gasoline, distillates and jet fuels; heavy refined products, such as residual fuel oils and liquid asphalt, and crude oil. Most of its terminal facilities are located on waterways, and have truck racks. Several of its terminal facilities also have rail or pipeline access. As of May 31, 2013, approximately 93% of its available storage capacity was under contract.
The Company generates revenue from Storage Services Fees, Ancillary Services Fees and Additive Services Fees. Storage Services Fees are its customers pay base storage services fees, which are fixed monthly fees paid at the beginning of each month to reserve storage capacity in its tanks and to compensate it for receiving up to a base product volume on their behalf. The Company charges ancillary services fees to its customers for providing services, such as heating, mixing and blending its customers��products that are stored in its tanks; transferring its customers��products between its tanks; at its Granite City terminal, adding polymer to liquid asphalt, and rail car loading and dock operations. The Company generates revenue from fees for injecting generic gasoline, gasoline, lubricity, red dye and cold flow additives to its customers��products.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By John Emerson]
Berman pioneered the idea of the World Poker Tour (WPT) and sold the concept to the Travel Channel. Watching poker on television had always been boring since the viewing audience could not see the down cards which the players held. Berman remedied that problem by allowing a camera to expose the down cards to the TV audience. That idea suddenly transformed Texas Holdem into a fascinating spectator�� sport. By the end of 2003 the stock had reached its book value of 15 dollars a share and I decided to take my profits, perhaps a bit prematurely. The stock quickly climbed to about 30 dollars a share on sheer momentum.
- [By Jon C. Ogg]
World Point Terminals L.P. (NYSE: WPT) was initiated as Outperform with a $23 price target at Credit Suisse.
See also more analyst upgrades and downgrades for Tuesday.
- [By Robert Rapier]
World Point Terminals (NYSE: WPT) owns and operates terminals and other assets for the storage of light refined products, heavy refined products and crude oil. World Point’s storage terminals are located in the East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the US. The partnership debuted on Aug. 9, and units have gained 2 percent since. The partnership agreement provides for a minimum quarterly distribution of $1.20 per unit on an annualized basis. At the recent closing price of $19.64/unit, this equates to a minimum annualized yield of 6.1 percent.